United States name-brand pharmaceutical manufacturers develop prescription and over-the-counter products that are used to prevent or treat illnesses in humans or animals. Name-brand drugs and medication have patent protection. This industry does not include nutritional supplement or cosmetics manufacturers. In 2020 the industry size was $205 billion in revenue (Kennedy, 2021, 32541a).
United States generic pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturers develop prescription and over-the-counter drug products that are used to prevent or treat illnesses in humans or animals. Generic drugs are produced and distributed without patent protection, and industry operators are not significantly engaged in the research and development of new drugs. The industry does not include manufacturers of nutritional supplements or cosmetic beauty products. In 2020 the industry size was $58 billion in revenue (Kennedy, 2021, 32541b).
Part 1: Scenario Synthesis
The first portion of your assignment requires you to evaluate the following four scenario frameworks by critically assessing their main ideas or constructs and synthesizing the research findings. You will evaluate the research of Day & Schoemaker (2005), Godet & Roubelat (1996), Hussain et al. (2017), and Ramirez et al. (2017) using the Scenario Synthesis Matrix (Table 1) section of the Scenario and Alternative Futures Template [DOCX]. Remember, as in all of the course assignments, all assigned and researched articles should be entered into your Capstone Literature Matrix.
Day, G. S., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2005). Scanning the periphery. Harvard Business Review, 83(18), 135148.
Godet, M., & Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios. Long Range Planning, 29(2), 164171.
Hussain, M., Tapinos, E., & Knight, L. (2017). Scenario-driven road mapping for technology foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 160177.
Ramirez, R., Churchhouse, S., Palermo, A., & Hoffmann, J. (2017). Using scenario planning to reshape strategy. MIT Sloan Management Review, 58(4), 3137.
The matrix is a synthesis, not a summary. A synthesis requires different main points or arguments presented by the authors from each of the scenario articles on their respective scenario frameworks. Complete the following steps:
Evaluate and identify the main points of each article.
Populate the first column of the synthesis matrix with the main points.
Work down the column from article to article. How does each article relate to the main points identified? Note: some articles may not cover all of the main ideas listed. Leave the field blank if the article does not address that main point.
Complete the final column: your synthesis.
Provide an introduction to the matrix and the process steps you followed. The matrix itself will be followed by a written summation of your findings on scenario constructs and frameworks and their application.
Part 2: Scenario Framework for Pharmaceutical Industry
You are a consultant hired to facilitate a meeting of executives at MiracleDrugs to conduct a decade-futures look. As the consultant, review the industry discovery summary of your research in the IBISWorld industry database that you previously provided to the client. Complete the following for this section:
Identify which scenario framework from Part 1 you will use to facilitate the meeting and explain why you chose this one over the others.
Identify five current state pharmaceutical industry trends or performance indicators essential to begin developing 10-year scenarios.
Based upon the selected framework, create five trigger questions for the executive team to use in creating 10-year pharma scenarios.
Remember to choose the name-brand pharmaceutical industry as discussed in US Industry (NAICS) Report 32541A or the generic pharmaceutical industry using US Industry (NAICS) Report 32541B.
Trigger questions are provocative prompts for creating innovative solutions to problems. “What if” is a great way of asking trigger questions that would shake up or change the industry.
Justify your selection and include the current industry outlook based on your research. To help you in your analysis, take the time to review the Day and Schoemaker (2005) article Scanning the Periphery, which offers valuable insights on the skill sets needed for futures thinking.
Your assignment should include the following headings:
Introduction.
Part 1: Scenario Synthesis.
Part 2: Scenario Framework for Pharmaceutical Industry.
Conclusion.
References.
