conduct a basic ACH process to answer the specific intelligence question “Will President Maduro and his socialist regime lose control of the Venezuelan government in the next year?”
use the eight steps of ACH to identify the most likely, most dangerous, and least likely course of action to answer a specific intelligence question.
forecast the correct course of action on the adversary. All evidential information is based on the five sources you included in your Module 7 Annotated bibliography. You may add additional sources if you like. This information will be presented in #3 below.
Submit your assignment with the following headings and requirements:
1. Introduce the Intelligence Question (Select the same question your researched in Module 7):
a. Will the military of Turkey conduct a second coup to oust Turkish President Erdogan?
b. What group will conduct the next terror attack in the US homeland, and how will they attack?
c. Will President Maduro and his socialist regime lose control of the Venezuelan government in the next year?
d. What is China’s next action in the South China Sea?
2. Identify three possible hypotheses to be considered. In the CIA link, it says to “use a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities,” which is not a requirement of this assignment.
3. Evidence Found (results of research – you need a minimum of 15 pieces of evidence in order to include them into your matrix (Label each as E1, E2, E3 ….. E15).
4. Hypothesis Matrix (create the matrix from the attached worksheet which is based upon Figure 15 found in Step 3 of the CIA link). view a sample of a completed hypothesis matrix hypothesis matrix [PDF File
5. Analyzed Hypothesis Matrix (it is a hypothesis matrix after evidence with no diagnostic value has been deleted).
6. Conclusions on Hypotheses (what did you find to be true/false of the hypothesis). Write this in a paragraph format.
7. Assessment: List the most likely, most dangerous, and least likely courses of action. Explain what in the ACH led you to assess the courses of action as you did.
8. Milestones (what evidence can be observed in future collection to change the analysis of the most likely hypothesis to another hypothesis).
For an understanding of the ACH process used in this assignment, refer to the Module 8: Learning & Assessment Activities, “Required readings” and refer to it as you go through each step. Chapter 8: pages 95-110 of Heuer, R. (2008). PSychology of Intelligence Analysis
