This online week has two concerns. The first is thinking quantitatively. Nate Silver is an accomplished statistician who successfully predicts a wide range of events, including state-by-state outcomes of Presidential elections (well, until 2016!). But accurate prediction is not easily accomplished, and involves more than using appropriate statistical procedures. Accurate prediction begins with particular ways of thinking and of engaging with information in the world. Utilizing quantitative methods to predict events is one manifestation of the scientific method. There are actually many manifestations of this method, including the development of your Dissertation Proposal.
In addition, this online week continues to look at control variables and their inclusion in statistical analyses. Including control variables in statistical analyses, as a way to “control for” the effects of these variables, is done in different ways depending on the particular statistical procedure. This online week is concerned with control variables as they are utilized in hierarchical regression.
Your reading for this online week is from Nate Silver and Meyers et al., there is also an assigned YouTube Playlist (see Course Syllabus for details).
Please use Myers and attached reading to answer.
Meyers, L. S., Gamst, G., & Guarino, A. J. (2016). Applied multivariate research: Design and interpretation (3rd edition). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications. ISBN-10: 1506329764, ISBN-13: 978-1506329765
Submit a response, stated in your own words, to each of the following eleven questions, use APA format and citations:
1) According to Silver, why do the predictions of political pundits and scholars tend to fail? Provide an example.
2) Silver speaks of Foxes and Hedgehogs. What is he talking about?
3) According to Silver, who are better forecasters: Foxes or Hedgehogs? Describe some reasons that one is better than the other, in your own words.
4) What does it mean to “think probabilistically”? Is a probabilistic thinker a more objective thinker? According to Silver, what are some ways to become more objective?
5) Regarding your Dissertation Proposal, is it best to conduct your literature review as a Fox or a Hedgehog? Explain your answer.
6) According to Meyers et al., how is hierarchical regression distinct from standard regression?
7) In the example in section 6A.2.2 (Meyers et al., page 206), what is the name of the dependent variable? How is the dependent variable measured? The dependent variable must be measured by a continuous (not a categorical!) measure. Is the dependent variable measured by a continuous measure? How do you know? What is the name of each of the control variables? What is the name of each of the focal variables (variables of primary interest)?
8) In the example, do the control variables go into earlier blocks in the analysis or later blocks? Do the focal variables go into earlier or later blocks? As applied to the example, provide a descriiption of hierarchical regression that justifies your answers.
9) When someone says that a variable has been “controlled for” in hierarchical regression, specifically what does that mean? Provide an example. What does the inclusion of control variables in a hierarchical regression analysis allow you to say about the focal variables?
10) According to the videos on the assigned Playlist, why is the regression equation called “The Heart of Regression”?
