The aim of this assignment is to assess your ability to apply the scenario planning framework to an emerging trend.
Scenario planning is a structured way to consider and anticipate the future. In broad terms, scenario planning involves determining and visualising probable future conditions or events, their likely consequences or effects, and how to respond to or benefit from them. Scenario planning is about what ‘might’ happen in the future, rather than what will happen—essentially it provides a road map from the present to the future. There are several important benefits of scenario planning, including thinking creatively and forward-looking, as well as questioning assumptions about the future and the drivers and forces that influence a specific sector of activity.
The aim of this assignment is to assess your ability to apply the scenario planning framework to an emerging trend.
Step 1: Trend selection: Active lives
Select and conduct research into one of the following trends: Active Lives
We explore a new active brand landscape driven by consumer desire for extreme experiences, urban adventure and immersive digital content. The work-life revolution looked at how fast-paced new lives and tech have impacted the work environment. Active lives shifts focus to consumer leisure time. You can use a brand such as Nike for this report
Step 2: Scenario planning
Apply the scenario planning framework from the trend forecaster’s handbook to the selected trend using the below nine stages (see the recommended text for detailed scenario planning stage descriiptions):
1- Determining the question: Consider the ‘What if’ approach(4 “what ifs” will be needed here
2- Contextualisation: Think about the ‘Context’ for example: Think about the internal forces/perspective-declining sales, inadequate budgets etc.
3- External drivers: What are the ‘External drivers’?
Look at the systematic and objective drivers. What is most likely to impact the question being asked? Consider cultural, economic, social aspects etc.
4- Ranking and ranging: What will have an immediate impact? How much uncertainty does it bring?
5- Naming and framing: Scenarios should be starting to emerge. What are they? What is their personality?
6- Logic and narrative: Logic, rationale and narrative that seems real and true.
7- Distillation and dialogue: What do scenarios have in common. Are there any regular themes?
8- Validation and refinement: present scenarios for feedback. Anything critical you have discarded in the process?
9- Interpretation and implementation: How will you measure success
For example, the first stage is ‘Determining the Question’, the framing of which is critical to the integrity and accuracy of the scenario. Here, you should follow a ‘what if ’ approach to keep your scenario plan focused and reflective of the core question being asked. Examples from the recommended text include: ‘What if the temperature of the planet were to rise by one degree per century?’ ‘What if one of our competitors were to create an engine that ran on electricity rather than petrol?’ ‘What if consumers only bought products that were proven to be sustainable?’
As you develop your scenarios, keep in mind that a good set will contain 4 to 5 different possible future conditions or events. More than five scenarios tend to get confused with one another, and three scenarios run the danger of deciding on the most moderate or most apparently plausible. Four scenarios is a good number—neither too many, nor too few.* Each scenario should contain enough detail to assess the likelihood of success or failure of the different strategic options. Also carefully consider and map out how each scenario is likely to change the social, cultural, ethical and environmental conditions of people’s lives.
Recommended structure:
Your assignment should be presented in report format and include numbered sections and headings, such as those below. The report must also be presented in a professional manner in terms of the font size, spacing, margins, design, and referencing.
– Executive summary
Summarise key points from your assignment
Contains 200-250 words
Is NOT an overview of the conclusion of your report
– Table of contents
– Introduction
Structure and scope of report
Scenario planning definition and framework, including the benefits of scenario planning.
Trend descriiption
– Main body headings
Use the nine stages of the scenario planning framework as a guide.
– Conclusion
Summarise your report, including any implications from your scenarios (e.g. what does it mean for the future of business and/ or marketing?). Please note: You should not present any new information in this section of your report.
– References (excl. from the word count)
Harvard system of referencing (the guide available on the unit Canvas page).
At least 5 academic journal articles with high relevance to the brief.
Other information (websites, newspaper articles, etc.).
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Tips for this task
Executive Summary
As the name suggests, an Executive Summary is written for Executives who do not have
time to read the full report. Think of this like an elevator pitch; if you only had 2 minutes
to explain to the CEO what the plan was about, what would you say?
Make sure you include your final scenario names and a one-line summary of each.
Introduction
There are two key pieces to include in the introduction – an overview of scenario
planning and your chosen trend research. Make sure you use Stylus among other
resources to research and explain your trend. Make it clear what aspect of the trend you are focusing on.
Scenario planning
Determining the question
This section doesn’t need to be extensive if you have researched your trend well. Your
trend research should naturally lead to the “what if” question being identified and
framed in this section.
Contextualisation
Here you need to research the internal drivers impacting your company. This is where
you will also make it clear who your company (real or hypothetical) is and which
industry you operate in. You may have more than 1 internal driver impacting your
company in relation to your “what if” question (e.g. you may be facing declining sales
and a demotivated workforce).
While this section may be hypothetical, it needs to make sense in the overall context of
your scenario plan. You can also still use evidence to support your internal drivers (e.g.
there are a lot of news stories around at the moment about how different companies
are adapting.)
External Drivers
Make sure you cover off a wide range of external drivers and how they might impact
your business in relation to your “what if” question. This should not just be in the short-
term but also longer-term. Remember Scenario Planning is about planning for an
uncertain future and is not just short-term. You could use a PESTLE framework here but
I would strongly encourage you to also consider cultural changes as this is an important
part of Marketing Insights.
At this step, you should also discuss how you might bring in and utilize your Star
Chamber. You may also want to use publicly available quotes from relevant experts,
such as from social media posts, blogs, interviews etc.
Ranking and Ranging
Rank and range your internal and external drivers on the relevance, immediacy, and
uncertainty they bring to the scenario planning process. A table might help you here for
example:
RELEVANCY IMMEDIACY UNCERTAINTY DRIVER How relevant is it to your scenario question?
How immediate is the impact of this driver?
What level of uncertainty will it introduce to the planning process?
By the end of this section, you should be able to clearly identify your top drivers.
Naming and Framing
Here your scenarios are starting to emerge. Give them names. To help you, you might
like to identify your scenarios according to:
• Base case
• Best case
• Worst case
• Rogue scenario
• Cross case
Logic and Narrative
Give your scenarios a storyline. What does the future look like if this scenario were to
play out? Use the information you have identified in your trend research and your
driver identification to help you weave your narrative. For example, ‘What if’ question,
leading to the scenario name, leading to the synopsis.
Distillation and Dialogue
Review your scenarios and the commonality between them. Where can you find
overlap? At this stage you should identify what your scenarios have in common (and
what they don’t) to see if you can refine your scenarios down to 3-4 clearer scenarios
with limited commonality. You can also assign colours here in relation to how much
change or risk they represent for your hypothetical business (red = high risk/change,
green = no risk/change, amber = moderate risk/change).
You may also like to re-write the narratives for your new, refined scenarios.
Validation and Refinement
How would you work with your Star Chamber to make sure you haven’t discarded
important information?
You should be very clear on your final scenarios by this point and be able to answer the
key drivers defining them.
Interpretation and Implementation
How would you measure success in response to the scenario? How will you make sure
you implement a feedback loop, and update your scenarios when new information
becomes available?
Structure and Visualisation
Communication and visualisation are key skills for Insights managers. We need to be able to effectively communicate and share information. Use features such as sub-
headings and dot points to ‘chunk’ content. You can also be creative with colour,
infographics and images to illustrate and emphasise key points.
This tips document is by no means a perfect example of how to visualise a report.
Quality of Writing
Make sure you proofread your assignment and pay attention to detail. A good tip is to
change the font of your assignment from a sans-serif font to a serif font (or vice versa)
for a final review, as your brain gets accustomed to reading the same information over
again and this will help you read your assignment with fresh eyes.
Sources and evidence
Make sure you reference your assignment throughout and include a reference list at the end. Use high-quality sources to support your research (always try to find the original source of the information if referencing news reports and DO NOT reference Wikipedia)
