W8: Future Threats
Discussion Questions: From a national security perspective, which challenge from the following list is the greatest issue for the United States and why? Pick just one and discuss fully.
• U.S. regulatory efforts that govern WMD
• International efforts to counter Proliferation of WMD from rogue nations
• Domestic terror group use of WMD
• Foreign terror group use of WMD
• Community mental health and resilience following a WMD attack
• The ability of responders (local, state & federal) to mitigate the consequences following a WMD attack
• The use of Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons (NSNW) on the battlefield (see week 8 readings)
• Addressing Biocrises After Covid-19: Is Deterrence an Option?
• A Weapons of Mass Destruction Strategy for the 21st Century
• Are We Prepared for Nuclear Terrorism?
• The U.S. Should Address the Threat from Russia’s Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons
• Tactical nuclear weapons, 2019
• Nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Russia’s evolving military doctrine
Week 1 Introduction to Security Issues in Weapons of Mass Destruction
We began this class by laying a foundation of understanding of how WMDs are regulated, not only through treaties and conventions on the international stage but by law enforcement and federal and local governments closer to home. You studied the nature of WMDs, the historical perspective surrounding these weapons, the regulatory efforts to control WMDs, and whether compliance, verification, and enforcement rules can be effectively applied with the requisite will.
Topics covered included:
• What are WMDs?
• A historical perspective
• Weapons in the world today
• Regulatory efforts for WMDs
• Why are WMDs still a problem?
• The dilemma of elimination
• Challenges faced in disarmament
• What must be done?
KEY TERMS
WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION:
A chemical, biological, or nuclear weapon capable of causing widespread death and destruction.
NUCLEAR WEAPON:
An explosive device that derives its destructive force from a nuclear reaction.
NUCLEAR FISSION:
A nuclear reaction in which a heavy nucleus splits spontaneously or on impact with another particle, with the release of energy.
NUCLEAR FUSION:
A nuclear reaction in which atomic nuclei of low atomic number fuse to form a heavier nucleus with the release of energy.
CHEMICAL WEAPON:
A specialized agent that uses chemicals formulated to inflict death or harm on human beings.
BIOLOGICAL WEAPON:
Living organisms or viruses that cause death or harm by reproducing or replicating within their host victims.
NONPROLIFERATION:
The prevention of an increase or spread of something, such as the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons.
Week 2: WMD Terms
The term “weapon of mass destruction” has a history in international diplomacy spanning six decades. Concerning disarmament negotiations and defining treaty obligations that the United States has accepted, a WMD is defined as a nuclear, chemical, or biological weapon, the same definition proposed by the United Nations in 1948. In the United States, however, dozens of definitions exist, some of which incorporate radiological, high-yield explosive, and cyber weapons, as well as those that the UN recognizes. Given the American presence in international treaties concerning this subject, an excellent case can be made for creating a standard definition of the term consistent with international law.
Topics covered included:
• How the terminology originated
• Should the terminology change?
• WMDs and U.S. political discourse
• WMDs in the Soviet Union and Russia
• Alternative definitions
• Non-CBRN WMDs
• Weapons of mass disruption
• Criteria for WMD Terminology
KEY TERMS
NBC WEAPONS:
Weapons that disperse nuclear, biological, or chemical agents to inflict injury or cause contamination or damage.
CBRN WEAPONS:
Weapons that disperse nuclear, radiological, biological, or chemical agents to inflict injury or cause contamination or damage.
RADIOLOGICAL WEAPONS:
Weapons designed to spread radioactive material with the intent to kill and cause disruption.
CBRNE WEAPONS:
Weapons that disperse nuclear, radiological, biological, or chemical agents or utilize high-yield explosives to inflict injury or cause contamination or damage.
Week 3: WMD Proliferation, Globalization, and International Security
The United States and its government are beginning to realize that the possibility of state actors possessing WMDs is not the only threat these weapons produce. Terrorists and other non-state actors may also attack individuals, institutions, and facilities with weapons of considerable destructive power. To address this threat, the federal government has engaged all of its relevant agencies and resources on state and local levels, using older initiatives (such as the Stafford Act and President Reagan’s Executive Order 12656) and newer ones such as the National Response Framework. However, these measures have yet to be tested against a full-scale WMD attack. Thus, the question remains whether the United States has sufficient capabilities at all levels of government to meet essential defense and civilian needs during a national security emergency.
Topics covered included:
• The Stafford Act
• Executive Order 12656
• Presidential Decision Directive 39
• The National Response Plan and Framework
• Federal involvement and efforts
• State involvement and efforts
• Local involvement and efforts
• Meeting a WMD emergency
KEY TERMS
CRISIS MANAGEMENT:
Measures to identify, acquire, and plan the use of resources needed to anticipate, prevent, and/or resolve a threat or act of terrorism.
CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT:
Measures taken to protect public health and safety, restore essential government services, and provide emergency relief to governments, businesses, and individuals affected by the consequences of a chemical, biological, nuclear, and/or high-yield explosive situation.
Week 4: Non-proliferation Regimes
By the end of the twentieth century, the potential threat that all forms of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons posed to the planet and its people was clear, and the world’s nations had responded by making agreements not to use those weapons. But as time wore on, technicalities and ambiguities made these agreements less effective and encouraged many countries to ease from their commitments or even flagrantly defy them. However, non-proliferation efforts have, in other ways, been successful in that no major WMD attacks have occurred since the very first atomic bombs ended World War II. Their level of success in the future has yet to be determined.
Topics covered included:
• The Baruch Plan (1946)
• The Atoms for Peace Program (1954)
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (1957)
• The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (1970)
• Supportive agreements to the NPT
• The Chemical Weapons Convention (1993)
• The Biological Weapons Convention (1972)
• New START Treaty
• The Australia Group (1985)
Week 5: Terrorism and WMDs
The potential threat of terrorists acquiring and using WMDs is the most significant security challenge facing the United States today. It has been made clear that the outcome of a successful WMD terrorist attack could include far-reaching economic and political consequences, not to mention hundreds of thousands of human casualties, which would significantly affect the international community. Only through global cooperation and constant vigilance can the United States succeed in keeping biological and nuclear weapons out of the hands of those who might wish to instill fear and harm us and our interests. This lesson surveyed some of the sizable body of literature that addresses domestic and international terrorism, the interrelation between domestic issues, public and media perception, and the intelligence community. In today’s world, a superseding concern involving terrorism is the possibility that terrorists will obtain WMDs and use them against civilian populations.
Topics covered included:
• WMDs and terrorist groups
• Terrorist threats involving nuclear WMDs
• The Global War on Terror and al-Qaeda
• The Islamic State
• Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT)
• Bioterrorism
• Threats from biological WMDs
• The future of WMD terrorism
KEY TERMS
BIOTERRORISM:
Terrorist acts involve harmful agents and products of biological origin, such as disease-producing microorganisms or toxins.
Week 6: USNORTHCOM and the CBRN Enterprise
This week, you learned that homeland security and defense is a far-reaching, complicated responsibility that involves the efforts and expertise of countless people and organizations. The various commands within the Unified Command Plan are integral to these domestic and international responsibilities. At the same time, the CBRN Response Enterprise’s components stand ready to respond in the case of a WMD event. As the post-9/11 roles of these entities continue to be shaped, they become a more robust defense for the security of the nation’s homeland.
Topics covered included:
• The CBRN Response Enterprise (CRE)
• The Defense Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear Response Force (DCRF) and the Command and Control CBRN Consequence Response Elements (C2CRE)
• The Unified Command Plan
• The U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM)
• USNORTHCOM’s organization
Week 7: Behavioral Reactions to WMDs
The full range of the impact of disasters on behavior can be a gray area. Historically, the resources allotted to the study of the sociological effects on victims have been minimal and have allowed for little insight into what could truly happen in the case of a WMD incident. A WMD attack will significantly impact the medical community if one were to occur, and one must be prepared. To reduce the impact of WMD attacks, first responders must include a range of professionals and resources as a necessary part of the disaster management response cycle: prepare, respond, recover, and mitigate.
Topics covered included:
• Behavioral and psychological reactions to WMDs
• WMDs as a public health concern
• The dangers of public fear
• Media coverage of WMD incidents
• The role of the U.S. President and Congress
• The role of the Intelligence Community
• The role of the citizen
• A plan for a WMD attack
KEY TERMS
SOCIOGENIC ILLNESS:
A condition in which a large group of people report similar physical symptoms that are traceable to social factors, as social interaction within an environment.
QUARANTINE:
To impose isolation upon people or animals that have been exposed to infectious or contagious disease.
INSTRUMENTALITY:
An organization that serves a public purpose and is closely tied to federal and/or state government, but is not a government agency.
Week 8: Future Threats
It is often difficult to predict the future. However, emerging technology and current events represent a window to the future. One example is genetic editing tools like CRISPR. It could be misused to create highly virulent or drug-resistant pathogens. Another example is using Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons (NSNW) on the battlefield. We must watch the war in Ukraine and be prepared for this potential rapid escalation in warfare. The CWMD field is ever-changing, with new threats and vulnerabilities.
