Data to use: temperature in palm bay, florida for last 30 days and record temperature on the 31st day – may use any news website with this city to get this data.
2. Describe the data:
Provide any useful information on the data (brief descriiption of the data, the data source, age of data, how data was
obtained). Use a descriiptive statistic to describe the data. Provide a chart that describes the data. (scatterplot, line
graph, etc. ) to add insight.
3. Outlier Analysis:
Decide if there are any outliers using any of the methods described in class. Discuss if you decide to keep the outliers in
your analysis. If you decide to not use the outliers, discuss your reason why.
4. Forecast:
Use two methods described in class (time series as how it is discussed in class, exponential smoothing, moving average)
to make forecasts. Compare the results of the two methods.
If you use a method not described in class, you will get a 0 for this portion of the project.
If you use a function in Excel or data analysis toolpak, you will need to apply it and interpret it properly to receive full
credit.
5. Error Analysis:
Provide an error analysis that helped you decide which method is best to use. Use one of the methods described in class
(MSE or MAD). Support your decision.
6. Conclusion
Provide analysis on your findings. Provide a conclusion of what the next steps your company hypothetically should
make.
Format of the project: This will be in memo form.
The memo should follow in a logical form – discuss the overall purpose, use the data descriiption and chart to
help support your overall purpose.
Your conclusion should tie it all together – discussing what the data is
saying with respect to the overall purpose.
You will turn in the memo (in Word) and the Excel spreadsheet with your supporting work. The Excel
spreadsheet should be well-labeled to make an easy reference. It is mandatory to turn in the Excel
spreadsheet.
General Memo form:
1. Introduction:
To:
From:
Date:
Subject:
2. General: One paragraph about the overall purpose of the analysis
3. Methodology:
a. Data Descriiption – this will be one paragraph describing your data. Note where the data originates, how
it was compiled, and the age of the data. Also point out 1-2 statistics (mean, median, standard
deviation, etc..) that seem to describe the data the best.
b. Chart that helps describe your data set. (You can insert the chart in the Word document or reference a
chart in an Excel spreadsheet). Use Excel to create the chart, no other charts will be accepted.
4. Analysis:
a. Outlier analysis – Provide one paragraph of your findings of outlier analysis. Make reference to the Excel
spreadsheet.
b. Two forecasts – Discuss the findings from your two forecasts. Make reference to the Excel spreadsheet.
c. Error Analysis – Discuss the findings from the error analysis. Make reference to the Excel spreadsheet.
5. Conclusion – provide 1-2 paragraphs of the conclusion. This will tie it all together – discussing what the data is
telling you with respect to the overall purpose. You should state what the forecast value is. The work in the
analysis portion of the memo should support the forecast.
