Final Essay Assessment ASSESSMENT CRITERIA: Choice: I have provided two essay options below. Please choose ONE. Structure: Each essay question is divided into eight questions to which you should provide a short response (about 300-400 words). Please follow the order provided. If you answer each question in the order provided, you will complete the essay. Citations: You must cite materials from six different weeks, including: o Lectures posted on Moodle from six different weeks o Readings posted on Moodle from six different weeks o The cited materials should be distributed across the six topics covered in the essay, with one lecture and one reading cited in each. Word Count: 3,000 total words (+/- 10%), excluding references (required) and any tables/figures (not required). I have given possible word counts for each section, but these are suggestions. ESSAY OPTIONS: Choose ONE scenario, read and consider it carefully, and answer all questions, in order. ESSAY OPTION 1: Advise the government of a new democracy The Scenario: The chief of staff of a newly elected government has just contacted you to help advise it on how best to design their economic policy approach. The government, led by President Beatriz Benevolente of the left-leaning National Freedom Party (NFP), has been elected to a five-year term. President Benevolente is the first democratically elected president in more than 20 years. The nation’s democratization came after two decades of military rule, where the presidency was rotated among the four branches of the armed forces (navy, army, air force, marines). However, economic mismanagement by the outgoing military authoritarian regime resulted in a major macroeconomic crisis (including hyperinflation that reached 1,000%, a currency crisis that saw the nation’s currency devalue from 5 soles to 500 soles per pound sterling, massive capital flight and de-investment, and an economic retraction of 20 percent last year that led to mass riots throughout the nation and to the nation’s elites opposing a continuation of this regime. The military agreed to step down and reinstate the nation’s democratic constitution, including its presidential system and single chamber legislature whose members are elected across 20 nation-wide districts according to proportional rule. The developing nation is small, comprised of just 5 million people who are mainly employed in manufacturing and agriculture. The nation suffers from high inequality, thanks to the large numbers of urban and rural poor that engage in informal or itinerant work. The nation’s socio-economic elites control large manufacturing enterprises, large tracts of land, and mineral wealth. The nation’s small but growing middle class mainly holds managerial positions in the manufacturing industry, owns small businesses in the services sector, or work in the nation’s sizeable public sector (bureaucracy, schools/universities, healthcare system). There is a small but sizeable urban and agricultural working class that hold formal jobs in the nation’s manufacturing and agricultural industries and is unionized. President Benevolente’s NFP holds 40% of the seats in the 100-member national congress. Drawn from both the nation’s agricultural and manufacturing workers, NFP voters range from center-left to radical left in their economic and social policy preferences. 25% of the seats are held by the radical left National Workers’ Party (NWP), a loose band of different trade and agricultural groups that advocate for collectivization. 20% of the seats are held by the right-leaning National Reconstruction Party (NRP) whose voters are drawn from the nation’s middle classes, which are conservative both economically and socially but generally pro-democracy. 15% are held by a right-leaning extremist party, the National Order Party (NOP), that represents the nation’s landowners, manufacturers, and business owners that did not support democratization but supported and end to the military regime due to its mismanagement of the economy. Instructions: Faced with the challenge of stabilizing the economy and ensuring support, the new government needs to consider the best portfolio of domestic and international economic policy choices. The government would like you to alert them to their main risks, the main policies for addressing them, and the main rewards for doing so. Please do so in the following order: a. Introduce the main risks to its survival (about 350 words) b. The best fiscal and monetary policy strategy (about 350 words) c. The best strategy for redistribution across socio-economic groups (about 350 words) d. The best strategy for redistribution across regions (about 350 words) e. The best incoming foreign direct investment strategy (about 350 words) f. The best trade policy strategy (about 350 words) g. The best currency policy strategy (about 350 words) h. Outline the main rewards that can be expected from these policies (about 350 words) ESSAY OPTION 2: Advise the government of a new autocracy The Scenario: The chief of staff of a long-time electoral authoritarian regime has just contacted you to help advise it on how best to design the regime’s economic policy approach. The regime is currently led by President Carmen Ordenado of the mass-based but vaguely right-leaning Party of National Loyalty (PNL). This is President Ordenado’s firste term but the PNL party has been in power for 30 years. President Ordenado’s predecessor left her with considerable macroeconomic instability (a large fiscal deficit, rising inflation, a devaluing currency). During her predecessor’s term, there were some workers’ strikes and protests in several towns throughout the nation, especially during the first few years of that leader’s term. The PNL is concerned about maintaining its support and the survival of the regime. This developing nation is small, comprised of just 5 million people who are mainly employed in manufacturing and agriculture. The nation suffers from high inequality, thanks to the large numbers of urban and rural poor that engage in informal or itinerant work. The nation’s socio-economic elites control large manufacturing enterprises, large tracts of land, and mineral wealth. The nation’s small but growing middle class mainly holds managerial positions in the manufacturing industry, owns small businesses in the services sector, or work in the nation’s sizeable public sector (bureaucracy, schools/universities, healthcare system). There is a small but sizeable urban and agricultural working class that hold formal jobs in the nation’s manufacturing and agricultural industries and is unionized. The regime is constitutionally presidential and has a single chamber legislature. Presidential- legislative elections occur every five years. The president is elected by plurality in a single- round election. Legislators are elected from 100 single-member districts. Since its creation, the PNL has won the presidential race with between 80-90% support. The ruling PNL is a mass-based, vaguely right-leaning party that has survived in power thanks to support from the nation’s mining, manufacturing, and agricultural elites as well as the unions of their workers. Targeted benefits have keep the leadership of the mining worker’s union (MiFU), the manufacturing workers’ union (MaFU), and the agricultural workers’ union (AWU) loyal to the regime. However, this year the PNL won the presidency with just 65% support. The candidate for the Party of National Democracy (PND), the only opposition party that has been allowed to register for elections, gained 35% support in the national presidential race and 40% seats in the 100-seat national congress. The remaining 60% seats are held by the PNL. The PND was founded by members of the nation’s small but rising middle-class services sector but has been attracting PNL voters, as well as voters from the urban and rural poor who do not enjoy formal sector jobs. Abstention has traditionally been high among these voters. MiFU, MaFU, and AMU members are also increasingly dissatisfied with the PNL and its policies. Instructions: Faced with the challenge of stabilizing the economy and ensuring support for the PNL and the survival of its electoral authoritarian regime, the President Ordenado needs to construct the best portfolio of domestic and international economic policy choices for stabilizing the economy and political situation. The government would like you to alert it to the main risks it is facing, the main policies for addressing them, and the main rewards for doing so. Please do this in the following order: a. Introduce the main risks to its survival (about 350 words) b. The best fiscal and monetary policy strategy (about 350 words) c. The best strategy for redistribution across socio-economic groups (about 350 words) d. The best strategy for redistribution across regions (about 350 words) e. The best incoming foreign direct investment strategy (about 350 words) f. The best trade policy strategy (about 350 words) g. The best currency policy strategy (about 350 words) h. Outline the main rewards that can be expected from these policies (about 350 words)
